TRENDS IN THE COMPUTER WORLD
Computer Buzz has identified several trends in the computer subculture that we think are important enough to comment upon, and we have assembled them here for your consideration.
Needless to say, we are always interested in what our readers think are important, and we would welcome your input.
Needless to say, we are always interested in what our readers think are important, and we would welcome your input.
SPAM
Spam is the bane of the Internet. It comes in many forms�phishing scams, junk emails peddling pornography, sex remedies, cheap foreign medications, chain letters�you name it. We're all sick of it, and only a tiny fraction of us fall for it. But that tiny fraction of the world's computer-using population is enough to encourage the spammers to keep it all coming. Spam is currently reaching epic proportions, and it is estimated that more than half of all email communications are spam of some description.
Computer Buzz predicts that spam will continue to increase in the near future, perhaps through the end of the current decade, and then it will decline, probably sharply. The US, among other nations, has recently passed laws against spammers, and we think that trend will continue. Admittedly, the US will have a hard time prosecuting junk emails that originate in other countries, but spam is such a pervasive worldwide problem that international cooperation between and among the authorities is now just a matter of when, not if.
Moreover, there is good money to be made by designing software and/or hardware that can detect and neutralize spam, perhaps even by pinpointing its origin for the cops. We predict that it won't be long before we have some new and effective techno-weapons that we can employ in the spam wars.
Spam will never completely disappear (nor will the hard-copy junk mail in your mail box, if the US Postal Service has anything to say about it). But in another decade or two, its economic viability will be so diminished that it will be no longer be a serious problem.
(Adjacent image depicts the REAL Spam�a canned meat product reputed to be made from the flesh of mammals or some related vertebrates.)
Computer Buzz predicts that spam will continue to increase in the near future, perhaps through the end of the current decade, and then it will decline, probably sharply. The US, among other nations, has recently passed laws against spammers, and we think that trend will continue. Admittedly, the US will have a hard time prosecuting junk emails that originate in other countries, but spam is such a pervasive worldwide problem that international cooperation between and among the authorities is now just a matter of when, not if.
Moreover, there is good money to be made by designing software and/or hardware that can detect and neutralize spam, perhaps even by pinpointing its origin for the cops. We predict that it won't be long before we have some new and effective techno-weapons that we can employ in the spam wars.
Spam will never completely disappear (nor will the hard-copy junk mail in your mail box, if the US Postal Service has anything to say about it). But in another decade or two, its economic viability will be so diminished that it will be no longer be a serious problem.
(Adjacent image depicts the REAL Spam�a canned meat product reputed to be made from the flesh of mammals or some related vertebrates.)
MULTIPLE OPERATING SYSTEM
There was a time not so long ago when PC users dreamed of being able to run two or more application programs at the same time on the same machine. Nowadays we all commonly have more than half a dozen apps running simultaneously, and we think nothing about it. The next new trend that Computer Buzz sees gaining momentum involves multiple operating systems.
For more than two decades now, Mac users have had access, albeit rather slow and clunky, to Windows emulators, the first being Soft PC, and, shortly thereafter, Soft AT. Just recently, with the release of Parallels Desktop software (and Intel CPUs), Macs can now run Windows lickety-split. For its part, Microsoft has been extremely reluctant to allow its operating systems to share space on a hard disk with any other kind of OS, perhaps understandably so, as the comparison is not always in MS's favor. But MS is not exactly in the driver's seat any more.
The rise of Linux in this decade from a niche OS for servers to a legitimate desktop OS for the masses has really brought this trend to the fore. Most versions of Linux―and there are several hundred now―are designed to share space on your hard disk with other Linux distributions and/or Windows. Likewise with the increasingly popular versions of the BSD OS, a form of Unix. More and more users are taking advantage of this feature.
For example, you might want to use Linux for most of your day to day chores because of the economic advantages of its widely available, high quality free software packages and rock solid stability, and then quickly switch over to Windows XT when you have to use some proprietary application that is not available elsewhere. This is already getting to be fairly common, and Computer Buzz can see no reason why this trend will not continue unabated.
(Adjacent image shows Parallels Desktop running Windows application on a Mac.)
For more than two decades now, Mac users have had access, albeit rather slow and clunky, to Windows emulators, the first being Soft PC, and, shortly thereafter, Soft AT. Just recently, with the release of Parallels Desktop software (and Intel CPUs), Macs can now run Windows lickety-split. For its part, Microsoft has been extremely reluctant to allow its operating systems to share space on a hard disk with any other kind of OS, perhaps understandably so, as the comparison is not always in MS's favor. But MS is not exactly in the driver's seat any more.
The rise of Linux in this decade from a niche OS for servers to a legitimate desktop OS for the masses has really brought this trend to the fore. Most versions of Linux―and there are several hundred now―are designed to share space on your hard disk with other Linux distributions and/or Windows. Likewise with the increasingly popular versions of the BSD OS, a form of Unix. More and more users are taking advantage of this feature.
For example, you might want to use Linux for most of your day to day chores because of the economic advantages of its widely available, high quality free software packages and rock solid stability, and then quickly switch over to Windows XT when you have to use some proprietary application that is not available elsewhere. This is already getting to be fairly common, and Computer Buzz can see no reason why this trend will not continue unabated.
(Adjacent image shows Parallels Desktop running Windows application on a Mac.)
FLASH DRIVES
One of the most important computer hardware trends in the latter years of this decade is not actually one of the highest profile ones. We're talking about flash memory now, and it's getting bigger and more important all the time, although most of us only think about in the form of those cute little 1-GB (or less) USB flash (thumb) drives.
Flash memory is a form of nonvolatile storage that was invented by Toshiba way back in 1984. It looks sort of like old fashioned RAM chips, but unlike volatile RAM, your data don't go away when the power is turned off. There is still a lot of R&D work to be done before flash memory is ready for prime time, but if this trend continues�and Computer Buzz believes that it will�hard drives will become a thing of the past, perhaps as soon as the end of this decade.
But first there are some problems to overcome with flash memory. A completely blank flash memory chip can be written to just like any disk�one byte at a time. But when it comes time to write over existing data, those data must first be erased, and flash memory chips can only be erased one whole block at a time. A block is a great deal larger than a byte, and this presents a technical problem. A block will typically range in size from 32 pages (at 512 bytes per page) to 64 pages (at 2048 bytes per page). That's not a big, huge deal for a USB thumb drive, but it's prohibitively inefficient if you're trying to use it for your primary storage device.
You might expect that a flash drive with no moving parts would last forever, unlike a mechanical hard disk. Alas, not so. Flash drives will withstand only a finite number of write/erase cycles, and then that's it. Your data are gone. They're working on this right now.
And then there's the cost factor. At this time, flash drives are considerably more expensive than hard drives on a gigabyte-per-gigabyte basis. Costs are coming down, but they still have a way to go yet.
But flash memory has a few things going for it as well. Although its access time is slower than DRAM, it's still considerably faster to access than a hard disk. And the flash memory chips are a great deal more rugged than hard disks. They can endure extreme temperatures, multi-g-force impacts, and even immersion in water without losing your data!
Samsung and Dell have both introduced laptops with flash drives, and the One Laptop Per Child project has announced that their �hundred dollar laptop,� code-named the XO-1, will feature a small flash drive instead of a hard disk.
The first big flash memory drives designed for desktop PCs will probably be modular so that you can easily slip them into your old computer in place of its existing hard drive. Until something newer and better comes along, flash memory and/or flash drive storage is a trend that bears watching. Remember where you heard it.
(Adjacent image shows Lego USB flash drive.)
Flash memory is a form of nonvolatile storage that was invented by Toshiba way back in 1984. It looks sort of like old fashioned RAM chips, but unlike volatile RAM, your data don't go away when the power is turned off. There is still a lot of R&D work to be done before flash memory is ready for prime time, but if this trend continues�and Computer Buzz believes that it will�hard drives will become a thing of the past, perhaps as soon as the end of this decade.
But first there are some problems to overcome with flash memory. A completely blank flash memory chip can be written to just like any disk�one byte at a time. But when it comes time to write over existing data, those data must first be erased, and flash memory chips can only be erased one whole block at a time. A block is a great deal larger than a byte, and this presents a technical problem. A block will typically range in size from 32 pages (at 512 bytes per page) to 64 pages (at 2048 bytes per page). That's not a big, huge deal for a USB thumb drive, but it's prohibitively inefficient if you're trying to use it for your primary storage device.
You might expect that a flash drive with no moving parts would last forever, unlike a mechanical hard disk. Alas, not so. Flash drives will withstand only a finite number of write/erase cycles, and then that's it. Your data are gone. They're working on this right now.
And then there's the cost factor. At this time, flash drives are considerably more expensive than hard drives on a gigabyte-per-gigabyte basis. Costs are coming down, but they still have a way to go yet.
But flash memory has a few things going for it as well. Although its access time is slower than DRAM, it's still considerably faster to access than a hard disk. And the flash memory chips are a great deal more rugged than hard disks. They can endure extreme temperatures, multi-g-force impacts, and even immersion in water without losing your data!
Samsung and Dell have both introduced laptops with flash drives, and the One Laptop Per Child project has announced that their �hundred dollar laptop,� code-named the XO-1, will feature a small flash drive instead of a hard disk.
The first big flash memory drives designed for desktop PCs will probably be modular so that you can easily slip them into your old computer in place of its existing hard drive. Until something newer and better comes along, flash memory and/or flash drive storage is a trend that bears watching. Remember where you heard it.
(Adjacent image shows Lego USB flash drive.)
CELL PHONES AND WI-FI
We've come a long way since the days of "bag" phones. Many of today's cell phones are sophisticated to the point that you can actually talk on them and make yourself understood for several minutes before your call is dropped. Computer Buzz expects that this wi-fi/cell-phone trend will continue for the foreseeable future.
Apple's 2007 introduction of the revolutionary iPhone kicked this trend up into a whole 'nuther level. It's context-sensitive touch-screen controls had not been seen on a telephone before, and its ability to go online with either a local wi-fi network or a phone company cellular signal has raised the bar significantly.
It's only a matter of time until laptop computers come from the factory with cell phone circuitry (and microphone, speaker, earphone jack, etc.) built right in. When you take it out of the box, you'll boot up, log on to your favorite phone carrier, sign up for service, and then start making your calls, local and long distance alike, from your keyboard. There'll be a port―probably a USB port at first―where you can connect your cell phone to charge its battery and sync it with your address book program on the laptop. There may even be a dock built into the computer that stores a matching mini-cell phone. It's gonna happen, and it won't be long.
And that's not going to be the end of this trend. Cell phones and computers are going to be melded together so intimately that you will soon be hard pressed to tell which is which. (Chances are that you won't care, just as long the gizmo works.)
Apple's 2007 introduction of the revolutionary iPhone kicked this trend up into a whole 'nuther level. It's context-sensitive touch-screen controls had not been seen on a telephone before, and its ability to go online with either a local wi-fi network or a phone company cellular signal has raised the bar significantly.
It's only a matter of time until laptop computers come from the factory with cell phone circuitry (and microphone, speaker, earphone jack, etc.) built right in. When you take it out of the box, you'll boot up, log on to your favorite phone carrier, sign up for service, and then start making your calls, local and long distance alike, from your keyboard. There'll be a port―probably a USB port at first―where you can connect your cell phone to charge its battery and sync it with your address book program on the laptop. There may even be a dock built into the computer that stores a matching mini-cell phone. It's gonna happen, and it won't be long.
And that's not going to be the end of this trend. Cell phones and computers are going to be melded together so intimately that you will soon be hard pressed to tell which is which. (Chances are that you won't care, just as long the gizmo works.)
WIRELESS EVERYTHING COMING SOON
Cell phones and wifi Internet connections were just the tip of the wireless iceberg. By the end of the following decade (i.e., 2020), almost nothing in the computer world will be connected to anything else with exposed wires.
Bluetooth is a good start, but it�s just a start. Bluetooth is a little tricky to get set up sometimes, and other times it�s downright cranky even after it�s been set up. But it works more often than not, and it�s pointing the way to bigger and better wireless protocols just down the road.
For example, there is already an SD card for digital cameras that can wirelessly transmit your photos (JPEG only, at this time) directly from the camera to your computer or the Web. It does so automatically without any prompting from you, and it can be used in any compatible digital camera. No USB cable required.
More of these wireless gizmos are on the horizon, and USB and Firewire and Ethernet cables will soon be a way of the past.
(Adjacent image shows Eye-fi wireless SD card for digital camera.)
Bluetooth is a good start, but it�s just a start. Bluetooth is a little tricky to get set up sometimes, and other times it�s downright cranky even after it�s been set up. But it works more often than not, and it�s pointing the way to bigger and better wireless protocols just down the road.
For example, there is already an SD card for digital cameras that can wirelessly transmit your photos (JPEG only, at this time) directly from the camera to your computer or the Web. It does so automatically without any prompting from you, and it can be used in any compatible digital camera. No USB cable required.
More of these wireless gizmos are on the horizon, and USB and Firewire and Ethernet cables will soon be a way of the past.
(Adjacent image shows Eye-fi wireless SD card for digital camera.)
COLORS ARE COMING
CONTRIBUTORS: JUNISAN DESPOJO BS INFOTECH 2B ANGELICA BACOTOD BS INFOTECH 2B DARLENE BAGIOSO BS INFOTECH 2B |
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